THE EFFECT OF IMPORT TARIFFS ON CONSUMER PRICES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This article investigated the effect of Nigeria’s import tariffs on consumer-price inflation between 2020 and 2024. During this period, headline inflation surged from low teens to over 34% by mid‑2024, with food inflation reaching nearly 40% year‑on‑year, driven by exchange-rate depreciation and global price shocks (2024 CPI: 33.69% in April, 34.19% in June). Under the ECOWAS Common External Tariff, Nigeria applies duties of 5–35%, supplemented by excise and VAT; however, temporary waivers in 2024 for staples (rice, wheat, maize, beans) failed to alleviate consumer prices, due in part to naira devaluation and implementation delays. An empirical synthesis using ARDL/NARDL and CGE frameworks aligns with these outcomes, indicating that tariffs function as a tax wedge but that relief measures require concurrent macroeconomic stability and transparent valuation practices. The analysis concludes with recommendations for targeted duty relief, legal reform of customs valuation, and strengthened institutional oversight to achieve trade, revenue and consumer affordability goals.